Common mistakes in forecasting 2 : Relying too much on technology

This year's Malaysian Grand Prix provided a wonderful example of how the best brains in the best organisations can make serious mistakes when relying too heavily on technology in forecasting...

McLaren and other teams were so busy looking at their super-high tech up-to-the-minute-pinpoint-accuracy weather forecast systems that they appear to have forgotton some of the basics - with disastrous consequences. Meanwhile, some of their competitors just looked up to the sky and saw the rain-clouds coming...!

This was how the Formula 1 website, grandprix.com described it:

"Strategic thinking worthy of the Keystone Kops has ensured that we will have a fascinating grid for tomorrow's Malaysian Grand Prix...

Mark Webber's Red Bull will start on pole after making an inspired choice of intermediate tyres .... But a mass loss of intelligence has ensured that three world champions will start in the last eight.

There are a lot of clever people in Formula 1 but the dividing line between genius and stunning stupidity is a thin one. Sometimes you can be far too clever for your own good "

(Source: http://www.grandprix.com/race/r823q1report.html)


followed by the official explanation on the McLaren website:

“So why did it happen? It happened because several teams, having consulted the weather radar, believed that the rain that was falling just prior to the start of Q1 would pass through and that the end of Q1 would be therefore by much drier. As we now know, it didn’t turn out like that. With hindsight it would therefore have been better if we’d sent our cars .... instead of waiting for what the weather radar had told us would be drier and faster conditions.

(MARTIN WHITMARSH Team principal, Vodafone McLaren Mercedes)


Of course, this sort of thing could never happen in the global organisation. Of course not! :o)

I think we know the answer. For me, there are actually 2 issues here
1. We can easily rely too much on the computer data and forget the basics at our peril
2. A kind of group-think kicks in: its a state-of-the-art system so it has to be right. Everybody believes it, just like the emporer's new clothes